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When geopolitical tension rises, markets react quickly.
In 2026, with multiple regional conflicts and expanding global trade friction, investors are once again turning to gold as a defensive asset.
But how has gold actually performed during wartime?
Gold has long been viewed as a store of value during instability.
Unlike equities, gold does not depend on corporate earnings. Unlike bonds, it does not rely on issuer solvency. During conflict, that independence matters.
The World Gold Council has documented gold’s behavior during periods of geopolitical stress, showing that gold often strengthens during heightened uncertainty:
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research
Following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system and during Middle East conflicts, gold rose dramatically as inflation accelerated and geopolitical instability grew.
Monetary policy shifts during this period are archived by the Federal Reserve here:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy.htm
During extended military engagement in the Middle East, gold experienced a sustained bull market, driven by:
In recent years, sanctions, energy disruptions, and military escalations have again elevated gold demand.
Central bank gold purchases have remained elevated during this period (World Gold Council data:
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/central-bank-gold-reserves).
War creates financial uncertainty in several ways:
Gold often acts as a neutral settlement asset when trust in financial systems weakens.
Not necessarily in the short term.
Initial liquidity events can cause broad selloffs, including gold. But historically, sustained conflict combined with monetary expansion has tended to support higher gold prices over time.
Gold’s connection to war is not emotional—it is structural.
Conflict increases fiscal spending, strains currencies, and elevates uncertainty.
In 2026, as geopolitical risks remain elevated, gold continues to serve as a stabilizing asset when traditional markets face disruption.
Senior Market Analyst
National Gold Reserve
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